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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

•    BRENT oil price 71.97 USD/barrel, continuously increasing prices,
•    EUR/USD: 1.1246, strong Euro
•    NAPHTHA: 558.28 USD/t, increasing prices
•    Slightly increasing SPOT olefin monomer and steeply increasing SPOT SM prices

•  Ethylene (C2) spot price (FD NWE): +10 EUR/t compared to the status at the beginning of the month (1,085 EUR/t),
•  Propylene (C3) spot price (CIF NWE): +20 EUR/t compared to early the month (925 ER/t), Styrene monomer (SM) spot price (FOB Rotterdam): + 50 USD/t compared to early the month (1,130 USD/t),

•    Quiet week before Easter,
•    Still short LDPE, LLDPE C4, and PPH supply

The last week was characterized by slowly rising prices and a solid new price level for polyolefin grades. Slowly the cheap items on the market are running out and the typical price bands are creeping up. The reason for the price increase is not only the monomer price increase, but the short supply due to maintenance and shutdowns for almost all polyolefin grades. The following PP capacities are down in Europe:

•    Borealis (Kallo) 385 kt/year
•    Borealis (Swechat) 135 kt/year
•    SABIC (Geleen) 250 kt/year
•    HIPOL (Odzaci) 35 kt/year

The plant of Braskem in Schkopau is still struggling with feedstock supply problems. And, according to preliminary information, this problem may persist until the middle or end of June.
In case of HDPE, "only" HIP Petrohemia (90 kt / year) is down, but will restart soon. Which means that supply to customers is expected to normalize in the second half of May.

In the case of LDPE, the plant of HIP Petrohemia (60 kt / year) is also under maintenance. However, western European goods traffic is more affected by the partial operation of the LyondellBasell plant in Aubett (320 kt / year).

Behind the Western European polymer manufacturing problems are the simultaneous shutdown and maintenance of several crackers. This gives rise to the increase of monomer prices as well. It is not unthinkable that prices for C2 and C3 will reach last year's price level by June. The price level for ethylene is 1,100 € / t while for propylene is 1,050 € / t.

The market has already accepted the price increase in May. The price change will be similar to April, 20-40 € for both olefin monomers and polymers. The question is whether a price correction or a temporary (summer) stoppage of price increases is expected in June. For now, this issue is open. If European prices are high enough due to short supply, imports can be expected to grow. And consequently, the fall in prices. For the time being, it appears polyolefin oversupply on the global market is not being manifested in a general fall in price levels, but in price volatility and supply fluctuations.

Spot SM prices indicate an increase. Similarly to olefin monomers, the market has already accepted the SM price increase by 50-70 € / t. In the background, there is a tight supply of polymer and monomer (Trinseo, Versalis) and the expected shutdown of the Shell SM plant in May. The price changes of monomers will also be followed by European polymer manufacturers. The price increases expected in April and May create/have once again created a market for polystyrene from outside of Europe.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of 1,070-1,140 €/t last week.  Cheap quantities are continuously being sold out.  While buyers are trying to bargain. However, this is not possible due to the lack of a commodity base. Demand is low, not too dynamic before Easter. Due to the lack of a commodity base, sellers are not too active. As one of the converters described the situation: “… the usual offer dumping in the second half of April…” Sellers and better informed buyers are also preparing for a price increase in May. The price increase will be 20-40 € like in April.

HDPE supply has narrowed in Poland, resulting in cheap prices disappearing from the market, with a price range rising. The typical HDPE prices in Poland were in a range of 1,130-1,220 €/t. In the other parts of Central-Europe the typical price range was 1,140-1,230 €/t. The difference is not significant.

HDPE BM prices in Central Europe were in the range of 1,140 to 1,210 € / t. Some traders offered Iranian materials cheaper by 15 to 25 €, but behind them there is a small amount of goods.

HDPE IM prices also rose slightly last week. Prices were in a range of 1,130-1,200 €/t last week.   Supply is short.

HDPE Film prices were in a range of 1,130-1,230 €/t in Central-Europe. Supply is getting shorter compared to the previous weeks.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,300-1,390 €/t last week.  Demand was low last week.
LLDPE C4 supply became shorter and at the same time prices increased, too. The typical prices were in a range of 1,080-1,140 €/t last week.  Demand is high, supply is short. Also in May, a tight supply is expected.  Thus, price increases may continue.

  mLLDPE (C6) prices varied in a range of 1,170-1,300 €/t, depending on the grade and producer last week.  There was no change compared to last week. Supply and demand were moderate.
Typical PPH prices are in a range of  1,160-1,280 €/t.  Prices have risen slightly. In Central-Europe supply is short everywhere.  The market expects prices to rise in May, but it will only be "only" 10-30 €.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,160-1,220 €/t in Central Europe.  Most deals are made in a price range of  1,180-1,220 €/t. Buyers are hesitant to accept the high price level.  More and more people use 'near to prime' materials, but their price is close to 1,100 € / t.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,170-1,260 €/t last week.  Prices for high-flow index products were in the price range of 1,190-1,280 €. There was no change. Demand has also narrowed as buyers feel polymer grades to be significantly overpriced.
Typical PPC prices were in a range of 1,280-1,350 €/t in Central-Europe last week, they increased.  Cheap quantities disappeared, supply became shorter. You can buy in larger quantities only at a price over € 1,300.

The PPR price range was 1,300-1,390 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week, prices increased. The level of demand is average as usual at Easter.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS Prices are in a range of 1,350-1,400 €.  Few transactions were made because due to the good demand goods scheduled for April were sold as early as last week.  In May, the market expects a price increase that is likely to be the same as the monomer price change (+ 50-70 € / t)

Typical GPPS prices are in a price range of 1,250-1,430 €/t, while HIPS prices are in a price range of 1,320-1,510 €/t. On the bottom of the price range (GPPS:  1,230-1.300 €/t, HIPS 1,320-1,360 €/t) there are goods from outside of Europe and from Russia.  While in the case of European products, prices are in the upper third of the price band as a result of the monomer price increase.

The price range of ABS was   1,560-1,720 € last week.  This shows a clear increase. That's because trader inventories from March are sold out.  Thus, the bottom of the price band could also rise in line with the SM price increase.