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PE roll over, PP small increase, PS significant price hike

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 66.25 USD/barrel, slightly dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1166, EURO getting stronger
• NAPHTHA (European): 536.12 USD/t, slowly further increasing prices
• Contracted monomer prices in January:
  • Ethylene (C2) contract price 0 EUR/t (970 EUR/t)
  • Propylene (C3) contract price 0 EUR/t (845 EUR/t),
  • Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +64 EUR/t (1,017 EUR/t)
  • For now, the market is on holiday,
  • Most manufacturers only publish their prices in the week ahead,

The olefin monomer roll-over did not come as a surprise. Neither NAPHTHA nor oil prices rose significantly during the holidays. However, it is worth noting that oil and NAPHTHA prices have been rising steadily since mid-August, while the prices of olefin monomers are falling. This means that the profitability of NAPHTHA-based monomer and polymer companies is steadily declining. Most European manufacturers are affected. The question is, how can they maintain their profitability? Is it a viable way to increase prices, or at least maintain prices? With special regard to the influx of cheap "shale gas" based polyethylene grades. One important experience in December 2019 was that non-European imports of HDPE could not be cheaper than 850-870 €/t. This is likely to be true for the cheap inflow of  LDPE, which will start  from North America in the second quarter of 2020.

At the beginning of 2020, polyethylene prices are at their lowest level. Due to the ethylene rollover, the PE price rollover is likely to continue in January. Prices will only be driven by an increase in orders from plastic converters. And this will happen at the earliest in mid-January. In the meantime, in the week ahead, plastic converters will mostly only get informed.

The situation with PP is slightly different. Although there has been a rollover of propylene monomer (C3), no significant imports outside Europe are expected. The availability of SIBUR's new entry capacity and the volume of imports from other Russian producers in January are still questionable. As the Orthodox Christmas and New Year ends only around January 10, no major shipments are expected. Therefore, despite the propylene roll-over, a lower price increase of around 10-20 €/t can be expected.

The € 64 increase in SM was not unexpected. This is considered the normal rate of increase. With prices reaching a historic low of 4 years in December, the SM is expected to rise further in February. And this rise is likely to pass through to PS as well. Thus, demand and advance purchases are expected to pick up in January. This is despite the fact that there are currently low quantities of  non-European imports. Major import shipments are expected only from the second half of January and February. This, in turn, will moderate the pace of price increases.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  890-1,000 €/t last week in Central-Europe. So far, December prices have remained. Demand was extremely weak due to the holidays. Demand is expected to revive during the week ahead. Prices remain basically at the December level. Some producers may still make smaller price adjustments in some markets down the line. However, this will not be significant. January prices will be in the range of 890-990 €/t.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 910 - 1,010 €/t in Central Europe last week. The new prices have only been published by the MOL Group. Typical price bands for each sub-grade last week were:

• HDPE BM 920-980 €/t,
• HDPE IM prices 910-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE FILM grades 910-990 €/t,

In January we expect unchanged prices. Demand will be weak by mid-month. Increasing demand can be anticipated in the second half of the month only. However, due to continued oversupply, strong demand will not be able to fundamentally move HDPE prices from the 900-1,100 €/t price range in 2020.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,120-1,210 €/t last week. They did not change compared to December. Demand will pick up as the spring season approaches. Pipe manufacturers begin their regular pre-season shopping. This means that European pipe producers will have the opportunity to increase their prices. The price increase will be 20-50 €.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-980 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. The appreciation of the euro is expected to result in a slight increase in January. The price increase will be 10-30 €.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,160 €/t last week. Sellers and buyers are also on holiday. As the supply is consistently wide, a roll-over is expected in January.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 920-1,030 €/t last week. These are still December prices. Despite propylene monomer roll over, price increases are expected due to low inventory levels. The price increase will be 10-30 €.

The price of PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week. Demand is weak due to holidays. The price of products with high flow index  was in a range of € 980 - € 1,080/t. Smaller price increases of € 10-30 are expected.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,070 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. Few transactions took place last week. According to market news, some traders still have cheap items that are only available in January at December prices. Thus, it is very likely that price increases will be smaller than for homopolymer grades. The increase is expected to be between 0-20 €/t.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,100-1,220 €/t last week. There were hardly any transactions. Prices will be announced this week. Price increases of 10-40 €/t are likely, depending on the product and application area.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,050-1,100 €/t last week, these are still December prices. There was no supply or demand. Although the insulation season is far from over, producers are likely to try to pass on the monomer price increase. Prices are expected to be between 1,120 and 1,170 €/t in January.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,050-1,140 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,230 €/t. There is a low quantity of PS import from outside of Europe on the market. The first shipments are only expected in the second half of January. Thus, European producers may try to increase the price by € 67 following monomer prices

Typical ABS prices have been in the range of 1,350-1,560 € over the past week. January prices have not arrived yet. However, price increases are very likely. Weak demand is expected in the first half of the month. The market is expected to recover in the second half of January. Typical prices in January are expected in a range of 1,400-1,650 €/t.