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The prices of the “commodity” polymers during the week ahead are affected by the following factors:

• BRENT oil price 54.38 USD/barrel, increasing prices
• NAPHTHA (European) 486.93 USD/t, further rising prices
• EUR/USD: 1.2258, strong Euro
• Contracted monomer pricesin January:
• Ethylene (C2) contract price +65 EUR/t (860 EUR/t) Propylene (C3) contract price +65 EUR/t (800 EUR/t), Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +108 EUR/t (1,026 EUR/t)
• Polymer capacity news:
• Rompetrol LDPE has no planned shutdown until early February
• SABIC Wilton the FM lasts longer (400 kt/year LDPE capacity),
• Lyondell Basell Berre shutdown (350 kt/year PP capacity),
• Braskem Schkopau unplanned shutdown (375 kt/year PP capacity)6
• Basell Orlen is building inventories due to 2 months of spring maintenance, so supply is tight.
• Unipetrol restrained HDPE production due to monomer supply problems
• Three-digit polymer price increase 
• Very limited supply of all polymers, 
• BREXIT has made customs clearance necessary again, so shipments from Great Britain are only slowly Logistical problems hinder imports from outside Europe.

In the first week of 2021, plastic converters returning from leave faced primarily a polymer shortage. There are not enough PE, PP and PS available from either polymer manufacturers or traders. The supply is extremely tight for all polymers. However, in addition, supply from LDPE and ABS is critical. This is well illustrated by the fact that the prices of these products have risen the most. The price of LDPE increased by EUR 150-200 and the price of ABS by EUR 200-250 per ton. Due to the extremely tight supply, it is likely that LDPE and ABS prices will continue to rise in January. But it is very likely that the price increase will continue for all polymers. This can only be hampered by supply expansion, which is now unlikely in the rst quarter. The biggest problem now is the lack of imports. In recent years, we have become accustomed to the presence of polymers from the Far and Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa and, more recently, North America in the Central European market. Now, however, due to logistical problems, these materials are missing from Europe. The global container shortage in the fourth quarter of 2020 is only exacerbated by the fact that sea freight rates have also increased 3-4 times in the last three months. Thus, it is not possible to import in the available containers at a competitive price. Despite the decline in Chinese polymer prices in January, due to expensive and tight transport capacities, the impact is not yet felt. There is no hope for signicant non-European import shipments to arrive. There seems to be little chance of solving the problem in the short term. Container shortages and steep increases in shipping costs have become a global problem and affect all industries. Although there are enough containers globally, they are not where goods would be waiting for them now. The COVID virus has thoroughly tangled global supply chains.

The European polymer market can only count on its own polymer production capacity in the rst quarter of 2021 for sure and with high probability in the second quarter as well. In addition to the polymer plant shutdowns listed above, European polymer production may be further constrained by signicant overseas imports of catalysts and polymerization additives. And it is important to mention that in 2020, Europe also became a net importer of acrylonitrile, which is an important raw material for ABS production. All this means that the rst quarter will be characterized by tight supply and rising prices in the polymer markets. As early as the rst week, while Orthodox Christian countries were still celebrating Christmas, a signicant race for available polymer stocks began. In the week ahead, we can only calculate with very limited availability. Even in December, it appeared that Russian polymer producers would be exporting more to Central Europe due to the holidays there. However, they had to be disappointed. Before Christmas, a few thousand tons of polyethylene were launched on the market in the Baltics and Poland, with delivery in January, which ran out immediately. New incoming shipments are only expected at the end of January, in February. However, it will also only be able to alleviate the shortage temporarily.

Polyethylene grades

In the 1st week of January, LDPE prices ranged from 1,150 to 1,250 EUR/t. There were price increases of € 100-200/t compared to the beginning of December. The cheapest prices in the SCE region ranged from € 1,150 to € 1,200 / t. Moving north, prices rose signicantly. This is due to weak demand in the South due to Orthodox Christmas. However, news also came from the Baltics about prices of 1,300 Euros. The supply is very tight, especially in case of MFR 0.3 lm grades. Converters seem to give “any price” just to be able to produce. Traders do not receive goods from manufacturers or can only call off 25-30% of their needs. In the week ahead, the price increase will continue, probably the Serbian LDPE producer will also raise the price, we expect typical prices between 1,200-1,300 € / t, with extremely tight availability. In the rst week of January HDPE prices were in a range of 1,010-1,150 €/t in Central Europe. They increased by € 90-120 per ton compared to early December. We have measured the cheapest prices in Poland. Prices are rising towards the south. The supply is tight, but by no means as critical as for LDPE. Materials are available for the time being. The question is, to what extent will the temporary outage of Unipetrol PE-3 cause shortage on the market? However, the range of HDPE BM models is limited and their availability is expected to decline further. The price of Film grades is likely to be driven by the expected increase in LDPE Film and LLDPE (C4) prices in spot transactions.

Prices by HDPE grades were as follows:

• HDPE BM: 1,020-1,230 €/t,
• HDPE IM: 1,020-1,150 €/t,
• HDPE FILM: 1,010-1,150€/t

Polypropylene grades

In the first week of January, typical PPH Raffia prices ranged from 1,090 to 1,190 €/t, depending on the producer and grade. There was a larger-than-expected price increase. PP producers made price increases between 95-200 €/t compared to the beginning of December. Plastic converters try not to take risks and accept offers relatively quickly. Supply is short. Therefore, spot prices are expected to rise further as early as this week and are likely to continue throughout January.

In the first week of January, the prices of PPH IM and non-specialty products with low and medium melt ow index were in a range of 1,090 and 1,200 €/t, and the prices of PPH IM with high melt ow index were in a range of 1,110 and 1,250 €/t. The supply is limited, there is hardly any availability. Some Western European manufacturers have forecast further price increases during the month. This now signicantly affects availability in spot markets as well. Some traders retain inventories in anticipation of price increases.

In the first week of January typical PPC prices were in a range of 1,160-1,290 €/t in Central-Europe. The typical trading price range was 1,180-1,250 €/t. Compared to the beginning of December, there was a price increase by 120-200 €/t. Virtually only European products are available on the market, but the supply is extremely limited. Further price increases are also expected during the month, as a result of which the typical prices may reach the price range of 1,250-1,300 €/t as early as in the middle of the month.

In the first week of January, PPR prices were in a range of € 1,200 - € 1,320 /t last week. Prices rose sharply by 95-200 €/t. Availability is tight, with further price increases expected in January in spot markets. The table below shows the typical prices of the last week (total truckload 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

In the fist week of January, typical EPS prices were in a range of € 1,250 - € 1,350/t. The typical trading price range is 1,180-1,320 €/t. There were price increased following monomer prices by 110-130 €/t. Availability is tight. Producers can only partially serve direct customers. And distributors and traders receive only a small portion of their needs. Although there is no season yet, due to the expected further rising prices, it is urgent for everyone to buy and stock up.

In the first week of January, GPPS prices ranged from 1,250 to 1,355 EUR/t. The typical trading price range was € 1,290-1,320/t. The cheapest prices were measured at a trader in Poland and the Baltics, these are probably stocks left over from December. GPPS producers have already sold virtually everything, there is no availability. HIPS prices were in a range of 1,300-1,400 EUR/t last week, with a price increase slightly higher than monomer prices. Availability is very tight, only a few grades are available. This shortage is supposed to remain during the rst quarter.

In the first week of January, natural ABS prices ranged from € 2,150-2,600/t. They rose far beyond expectations. The highest price was measured in the Baltics. The amount of ABS available in Europe is very small compared to demand. Plastic converters do not have spare inventories either, the situation is very critical. The solution does not appear yet. It is conceivable that in some sectors (home appliance) the lack of ABS may lead to a decline in production.